Avalanche deaths more likely when risk of slides rated 'cons

Deaths from avalanches in B.C. are actually more common when the risk of slides is "considerable" than when it is high or extreme, according to data collected by the Canadian Avalanche Centre.

Early Monday morning, two people were killed and three more were injured when an avalanche struck a heliskiing party guided by Last Frontier Heliskiing about 230 kilometres north of Stewart.

An avalanche forecast put out by the centre on Friday rated the risk of avalanches in the alpine areas of northwest B.C. as "considerable" for the weekend, lowering to "moderate" by Monday morning.

A second forecast put out Monday afternoon -- after the avalanche occurred -- raised the warning level again to "considerable" in the area for both Monday and Tuesday.

The centre uses a five-point scale to measure avalanche risk -- low, moderate, considerable, high and extreme.

Under that scale, considerable means natural avalanches are possible, human-triggered avalanches are probable -- and back-country skiers are advised to take extra caution.

In contrast, a rating of high means both types of avalanches are likely and extreme means they are certain.

But Ilya Storm, an avalanche forecaster with the centre, said avalanche-fatality data shows the greatest number of deaths -- about 40 per cent -- occur when the risk rating is considerable.

"At high and extreme, there are relatively few fatalities and the reason for that is the mountains are rumbling," he said. "There are avalanches coming down all over the place and you can picture yourself being terrified and so you go home and drink hot rum by the fire."

In contrast, said Storm, the middle rating of considerable leads people to push the edge.

"Decision-making is difficult because it's not clear-cut whether conditions are really good or really bad," he said. "And with that comes more bad decisions." Storm stressed that the centre's ratings are meant primarily to advise recreational back-country skiers as opposed to skiers who are professionally guided -- like those who died in Monday's avalanche.

"Professional guides are in the snowpack daily -- they have professional-level training and experience," said Storm. "They're out there every day."

Despite Monday's tragedy, this has been a relatively good season for avalanche deaths.

Storm said an average of 12 people die in avalanches every year in Canada, mostly in B.C.

Including Monday's two fatalities, seven people have died in avalanches this winter season, compared to eight in 2005-06, and six in 2004-05.

Storm said 2003-04 was one of the worst years on record, with 27 avalanche deaths nationwide -- including a single incident near Revelstoke that killed seven skiers.

The RCMP refused Tuesday to release the names of the two people who died in Monday's avalanche, saying their families have not yet been notified.

However, it said one was a Japanese man and the other was a Canadian woman who worked for the heliskiing lodge.

The three people injured in the avalanche were taken to a nearby medical centre and then flown to a hospital in Prince Rupert. On Tuesday, two of the injured -- both Japanese citizens -- were airlifted to Vancouver General Hospital, where one was later released and the other, a woman, was treated for a broken leg.

Mike Watling, a spokesman for Last Frontier, released few details on the incident Tuesday other than to say it involved a guide and five guests.

He said the company initiated a rescue plan after it was informed of the avalanche by one of its guides.

Watling refused to say how experienced the guide was.

He also wouldn't say what specific steps were taken to ensure the area was safe, other than the company has stringent safety policies in place.

"There's a very systematic form of communications within the guiding team in order to determine what areas to ski or not to ski," he said.

Watling said the company has been in operation for 12 years and has had no fatalities among its guests until now.

Storm said the avalanche season starts in November and can last through mid-May.

cskelton@png.canwest.com

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